Global oil markets are again on edge after investment bank Goldman Sachs said Brent crude could rise above $120 a barrel in the fourth quarter if shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz persist. The bank nevertheless stressed that its base case remains a more moderate rise to $80 in Q4 and $75 next year, provided tensions ease.
What Goldman said and why it matters
The bank’s analysts, including Daan Struyven, pointed to a combination of renewed fighting in the Middle East, attacks on tankers and Houthi threats to Red Sea exports as the primary drivers of the heightened risk. They said lower global inventories in the second quarter have left the market more exposed to supply shocks.
“Escalation in the Middle East and the decline in estimated Persian Gulf flows to below 45% of prewar levels have pushed oil prices back up,”
Those factors have already shown their effect: Brent surged back above $91 a barrel earlier in July. Goldman described upside risks to its central forecast caused by continued disruption in Hormuz and the Red Sea, even while allowing that slower Chinese imports and more elastic demand could limit gains.
Local consequences for Brent residents
For people in Brent, movements in the price of Brent crude typically feed through to petrol and diesel prices at the pumps, freight and delivery costs, and, over time, some household energy bills. While refiners, taxes and distribution costs also influence retail prices, a sustained jump in the international price would be felt locally in transport costs and, potentially, in inflation on goods that depend on road freight.
- Goldman’s upside scenario: Brent over $120 per barrel in Q4 if disruptions persist.
- Goldman’s base case: Brent at $80 in Q4, $75 in 2027 if tensions de-escalate.
- Current context: Brent trading above $91, with risks tilted to the upside.
Numbers at a glance
| Scenario | Brent forecast |
|---|---|
| Goldman upside (persistent disruption) | $120+ |
| Goldman base case (de-escalation) | $80 (Q4) |
| Goldman next-year forecast | $75 |
Local authorities and consumer groups commonly monitor such global forecasts because they anticipate potential cost pressures for households and businesses. Brent residents reliant on cars, local delivery services, or energy-intensive supplies should expect volatility in prices while geopolitical risks remain unresolved.
InfoRadar will continue to follow developments in global oil markets and report on any direct local impacts, including changes at the pumps and guidance from local consumer advisers.
