Extreme temperatures are not only a public health threat in India; they are also dragging down earnings for millions who work without formal protections. New analysis by the International Institute for Environment and Development (IIED) finds that outdoor and highly physical jobs suffered steep productivity losses in 2024, with knock-on effects on nutrition, savings and long-term health.
Heat as a poverty multiplier
The IIED study concludes that extreme heat is acting as a “poverty multiplier” for workers in India’s vast informal economy, where an estimated nine in ten people are employed. Across sectors such as agriculture, construction and transport, workers saw an average 6.6% reduction in salaries last year attributable to heat stress and associated work slowdowns. Those labouring outdoors faced the worst outcomes, losing close to 9% of annual income — roughly £112 (US$151) — as sustained high temperatures curtailed hours and output.
Researchers estimate that heat led to the loss of 21.1 working days per year in India, a substantial hit for the country’s approximately 550 million informal workers who typically lack paid leave or robust health and safety provisions.
Regional toll and health implications
The burden is not evenly shared. In Rajasthan, where prolonged heatwaves have coincided with a rising heat-related death toll, informal workers lost about 8.3% of their income on average. The analysis underscores how relentless heat degrades physical capacity, forcing workers to cut back or collapse their schedules just to endure the day.
“Heat is quietly pushing these families deeper into poverty.”
“As the heat rises, their efficiency goes down, so they earn less. With lower income their food intake falls. And because they cannot afford to stop, they keep working through it, doing lasting damage to their health. They are paying for a crisis they did nothing to cause, with their health and with their savings.”
Human-driven climate change is making every heatwave more frequent and intense. A previous World Bank assessment has warned that India could become one of the first places where heatwaves approach the limits of human survivability — a stark backdrop to the IIED’s findings on work, wages and wellbeing.
Why wages are falling
- Reduced productivity: Heat stress impairs physical performance, forcing shorter shifts and more breaks.
- Lost days: The study attributes an average of 21.1 lost working days per year to extreme heat.
- Income squeeze: Average losses of 6.6% across sectors, nearing 9% for outdoor workers, compound existing vulnerabilities.
At a glance: heat-linked losses
| Indicator | Finding |
|---|---|
| Average salary loss (2024) | 6.6% |
| Outdoor workers’ loss | Close to 9% (~£112) |
| Rajasthan informal workers | 8.3% income loss |
| Working days lost annually | 21.1 days |
| Informal workforce size | About 550 million people |
Systemic risks for a developing powerhouse
India, which aims to reach developed-country status within the next two decades, faces a compounding challenge if soaring temperatures continue to erode productivity for the majority of its workforce. In sectors that depend on manual labour and outdoor activity, heat is already translating into fewer hours worked, diminished earnings and higher health risks from dehydration, heat exhaustion and related illnesses. For households living on thin margins, even single-digit income losses can undermine food security and force harmful coping strategies.
The IIED’s findings also highlight the inequity at the heart of the crisis. Informal workers are least able to pause during heatwaves, and least shielded by employer-provided protection, yet they bear the brunt of climate-driven extremes. As the analysis indicates, heat’s cumulative impact — lower daily output, skipped meals, and repeated exposure — can inflict lasting damage on health, further constraining future earning potential.
What this means for policy
The study provides quantifiable evidence that heat is depressing livelihoods at scale, particularly among those with the least financial resilience. The figures strengthen the case for measures that reduce exposure and support income stability during extreme temperatures, including access to shade and cooling, work-rest scheduling, hydration, and protections for those without formal contracts. While the research does not prescribe specific interventions, it underscores that the health and economic dimensions of heat are inseparable — and growing.
As climate volatility intensifies, the costs of inaction are likely to show up first in the wages and wellbeing of workers whose labour underpins food production, construction and transport. The IIED’s analysis makes plain that for India’s informal workforce, rising heat is no longer a distant environmental concern, but a present-day health and income crisis.
