Rain is expected to reach parts of North Wales this weekend, but authorities warn the brief spells of wet weather are unlikely to ease the strain on rivers and groundwater that has built up during one of the driest starts to the summer. Natural Resources Wales confirmed on 16 July that North Wales has been moved from normal to prolonged dry weather status — the first stage of the official drought plan. The move follows a worrying shortfall in rainfall this month and continuing low levels after a dry June in key catchments.
What the forecast says
The Met Office regional outlook indicates Saturday will remain warm and largely dry across Wales, with daytime temperatures expected to reach about 27°C. A change to more unsettled conditions is set to follow into Sunday, as a showery, breezy band pushes in from the north-west. Slow-moving frontal rain is forecast to spill overnight into Sunday, bringing some respite to parched ground.
Why a little rain won't be enough
Despite the incoming showers, hydrologists are cautious. Short, patchy rainfall will not necessarily provide the sustained recharge rivers, aquifers and soils need after prolonged dry weather. Natural Resources Wales has highlighted concern over falling river and groundwater levels and the impact on wildlife and farming.
- Official status: North Wales moved to prolonged dry weather on 16 July.
- Rainfall shortfall: Wales has received only around 5% of the expected July rainfall so far.
- Local impacts: Farmers report failing forage crops and increased pressure on grazing land.
Local consequences and practical advice
Farmers in affected areas are already reporting problems with forage and grazing, underlining how depleted ground conditions have become. While any rain will be welcome, authorities continue to advise households and agricultural businesses to use water carefully. Even if the weekend's showers arrive as forecast, officials say water conservation measures are likely to remain in place until a sustained improvement in rainfall and river levels is observed.
| Item | Current situation |
|---|---|
| Official drought stage | Prolonged dry weather (from 16 July) |
| July rainfall to date (Wales) | About 5% of expected |
| Forecast high (Saturday) | Around 27°C |
Local communities reliant on private water supplies, smallholders and those with livestock should remain alert to local guidance from Natural Resources Wales and Flintshire County Council. Any short-term improvement in weather will need to be followed by more consistent rainfall to reduce the risk of a full drought declaration.
We will monitor updates from the Met Office and NRW and report any change in status or significant impact across Flintshire as they arise.
