Forecasters and health officials have warned that a brief splash of rain expected this weekend is unlikely to be enough to reverse drought conditions across the West of England, including Gloucestershire, Somerset, Wiltshire and Bristol.
Pressure remains despite cooler forecast
After the driest spring in more than 50 years and three separate heatwaves, plants and soils across the region are suffering and water reservoir levels are falling. The Met Office says the high pressure that has kept rain clouds at bay for weeks will only weaken briefly, bringing some showers rather than sustained, soaking rain.
"Of course, some rain is better than none, for those who are desperate for it. But for many of us, it will probably be just a brief splash of less than a handful of millimetres. After weeks, even months without a drop, we need more than that," said BBC Meteorologist John Hammond.
The UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) has issued a yellow heat health alert across the West, in place until 09:00 on Sunday, warning that temperatures could cause minor impacts for health and social care services and increase risk to vulnerable people.
How hot could it get?
Long-range forecasts suggest there may be more showers towards the end of July and into August, but those signals are described as "weak and unreliable" by meteorologists. Some areas in the West could see up to 20 consecutive days of temperatures at heatwave levels.
| County | Heatwave threshold |
|---|---|
| Somerset | 26°C |
| Wiltshire | 27°C |
| Gloucestershire | 27°C |
Local impacts and what to expect
Residents and local services should prepare for continued dry conditions even if there are short-lived showers this weekend. Practical consequences likely to continue include:
- Continued stress on gardens, crops and public green spaces already browned by prolonged heat.
- Lowered reservoir and river levels, potentially affecting water supplies if the dry spell persists.
- Heightened health risks for older people, very young children and those with existing health problems during persistent high temperatures.
While meteorologists say some relief may be on the horizon, they caution that a short period of rainfall will not replenish water stores drained by an unusually dry spring. Local authorities and water companies have previously advised water users to follow any conservation guidance if supplies come under pressure.
For people concerned about heat-related health issues, the UKHSA heat-health alert is a reminder to take sensible precautions: keep hydrated, avoid strenuous activity during the hottest parts of the day, and check on neighbours who may be vulnerable.
The situation will depend on whether the predicted weakening of high pressure leads to a genuine, sustained change in the weather pattern in the coming weeks. Forecasters say they will keep watching signals for more reliable showers or a cooler spell, but for now the West looks set to remain on edge for rain.
