A government-commissioned study released to policing leaders concludes that greater investment in policing could produce substantial economic returns for communities across the UK. The research, carried out for the Office of the Police Chief Scientific Adviser, quantifies links between local crime levels, policing activity and business performance.
Key findings and figures
The report presents several headline metrics that underpin its central argument:
- Every £1 invested in policing generates around £10.70 in economic value for businesses.
- A 10% increase in neighbourhood crime is associated with approximately a 1% reduction in business output.
- A 10% rise in community policing could deliver roughly £13 billion in net economic benefits to businesses over three years.
- Businesses in high-crime areas have a 19% chance of surviving a decade, compared with 45% in the lowest-crime areas.
The authors emphasise that the economic harm from crime extends beyond immediate losses from theft and vandalism, affecting investment decisions, entrepreneurial activity and productivity across communities.
“Policing has impact beyond catching criminals, it's the foundation of thriving communities. When crime falls, businesses grow, investment follows and local economies prosper,”
The comment above was made by Chief Constable Gavin Stephens, chair of the National Police Chiefs’ Council, in response to the report’s conclusions.
Context and prior research
The new study builds on a 2025 analysis that examined the value of policing for households and communities. That earlier work reported that a one percentage point increase in the share of crime in an area correlates with a 1.5% fall in house prices. Taken together, the two reports are presented by policing leaders as the most comprehensive assessment to date of how policing influences the wider UK economy.
Authors of the current report argue that policing is a critical driver of local economic growth: lower crime levels support business survival and expansion, encourage new investment and underpin community confidence. The report frames its findings in the context of national policy debates about public spending and growth.
Implications for policy and policing
The report’s numerical estimates are likely to be used by policing advocates in discussions with ministers and local authorities about funding allocations. If accepted by policymakers, the analysis provides an economic rationale for increases in neighbourhood-focused policing and community engagement initiatives.
At the same time, the report does not eliminate debates about the most effective ways to reduce crime, nor about how to allocate limited public resources across competing priorities. The study quantifies associations between crime, policing and economic outcomes; decisions on implementation, measurement and accountability will determine whether the projected economic benefits are realised in practice.
| Measure | Estimate |
|---|---|
| Return per £1 invested in policing | £10.70 economic value |
| Effect of 10% increase in neighbourhood crime | ~1% reduction in business output |
| Effect of 10% increase in community policing | ~£13bn net benefits over three years |
| Business survival over a decade (high vs low crime) | 19% vs 45% |
The National Police Chiefs’ Council has used the report to reiterate that policing contributes beyond crime detection and prosecution, extending to economic stability and local prosperity. The findings will feed into ongoing discussions about resource levels for neighbourhood policing, preventive work and community-based approaches.
Ministers and local authorities will now face choices about whether to prioritise additional spending on policing as a mechanism to stimulate local economies, or to target funds elsewhere. The report provides quantified estimates that will inform that debate, but realising the benefits will depend on operational decisions within police forces and broader local economic strategies.
